Fantasy football 2024 quarterback rankings: ‘Upside’ and ‘downside’ scores; plus, a downloadable spreadsheet (2024)

The quarterback position has always been of prime importance in fantasy football, but that eminence has increased notably of late, as 11 quarterbacks scored 270-plus fantasy points last season and five scored 319 or more points. To put that former number into perspective, in PPR scoring last season, only 12 other players scored 270-plus points (nine wide receivers and three running backs).

This makes it crucial for fantasy managers to acquire a strong quarterback, and to assist with this, The Athletic is providing its readers with access to my annual deep dive write-ups for the quarterback position. I have been writing reviews of this nature for my fantasy football draft guide series for 21 years now (the 2024 edition can be found here) and am making the write-ups for the Top 25 quarterbacks available to The Athletic’s readers .

We have also included a downloadable Excel rankings chart to assist with your draft day quarterback selections. This chart features my overall/upside/downside system that utilizes a grading spectrum to highlight a player’s value range. The upside grade reflects a player’s value if things go well for him during the 2024 campaign, while the downside grade illustrates the floor if circ*mstances fare poorly. The overall grade then details the quarterback’s most likely performance level this year.

These grades are on a 1-100 scale and are also color coded, with blue (90-100) indicating an elite player, green (80-89) representing a strong starter, yellow (70-79) signifying a solid backup, orange (60-69) suggesting that the player be a low-end backup in deep leagues, and a red (below 60) grade being given to quarterbacks who should not be on most fantasy rosters.

Note: The write-ups also include references to the color-coded system in regard to matchups, as they often highlight if a player has a high volume of green-rated (favorable) or red-rated (unfavorable) opponents.

The chart then provides matchup points and fireworks points totals for each player. The matchup points metric is a measurement of how favorable or unfavorable the opposing pass coverage is over the course of the 2024 season. The fireworks points statistic indicates how likely it is that this quarterback’s team is going to get into a lot of high scoring games this year. Both are graded on a 1 to 100 scale, with 100 being most beneficial to the quarterback.

The chart concludes with a suggested draft round and auction dollar value for each player ($200 format). The draft round is based on leagues that have only one starting quarterback in a 12-team league and will need to be adjusted for fantasy managers in 2QB or SuperFlex leagues.

Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s dive into the top 25 quarterback reviews!

• View the entire downloadable Excel QB rankings chart

1. Josh Allen, BUF

• Overall rank: 1
• Upside rank: 1
• Downside rank: 1

Upside case: Allen has finished first in QB points in three of the past four seasons and was only 20 additional points in the 2022 campaign away from being the first quarterback to finish first in fantasy points in four straight seasons. He has a rare ability to excel on the ground and in the air, as Allen was the only quarterback last year to place in the top 10 in both rush and pass PPG. He achieved the latter despite the drop-off of Stefon Diggs, so adjusting to the new pass game personnel should not be an issue for Allen’s fantasy production. Having a full season with OC Joe Brady, whose play calling turned Buffalo’s offense around after a midseason slump, could be a boon. Allen led the team in red zone/inside the 10/inside the 5 rushes last year and has a good chance to do that again this year.

Downside case: Allen scored 15 rush touchdowns last year. For perspective, Allen and Jalen Hurts are only quarterbacks in league history to do this. Combine that with Allen averaging 7.5 rushing touchdowns per season in the previous four years and it could portend a notable drop-off here. Buffalo may not want Allen to continue leading the team in high leverage rush attempts, which explains the selection of 5-foot-8, 220-pound Ray Davis in the draft. The Bills were more run-centric under Brady’s direction and HC Sean McDermott may want them to continue on that track, especially given Buffalo’s revamped WR corps. That corps has talent, but it also has the potential to rate as mediocre this season. The pass coverage schedule is very tough.

Overall case: His multifaceted skill set and track record are enough to rate Allen as the top QB, but if the rush touchdown regression occurs and/or the wide receivers don’t take a big step forward, there may not be much distance between Allen and the rest of the elite QB1 candidates.

Draft strategy: He will be picked early in the second round in most draft rooms, but the potential for a production dip means it’s best to wait until the turn between Rounds 2 and 3 to take Allen.

2. Patrick Mahomes, KC

• Overall rank: 2
• Upside rank: 1
• Downside rank: 2

Upside case: Mahomes is so talented that he can go through a season with little to nothing in the way of a field-stretching wideout and deal with a down performance by Travis Kelce and still posts 280 fantasy points. The Chiefs added plenty of deep-ball talent in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy and Andy Reid has already shown that Kansas City will be airing it out a lot more this year, so Mahomes should notch 600-plus pass attempts. Mahomes led the league in completions and TD passes inside the 10 and should contend for both honors again. Last year was the first time since 2017 that Mahomes hasn’t scored a rush TD, so there can be a marginal scoring increase here as well. The season is incredibly favorable, with nine green-rated QB fireworks matchups overall and five in Weeks 1-7.

Downside case: Reid has learned the value of avoiding shootout matchups and has the caliber of run game and defense to do so this year. That could turn this from a pass-happy offense into more of a vertical pass/power run system that gets a lead and then runs to win. Reid won’t go overboard here, but it is the type of thing that could keep Mahomes under 600 passes and thus drop him a notch among the elite QB1s. Mahomes was in the bottom five of qualifying quarterbacks in vertical and stretch vertical PPG last year, so if Brown and Worthy don’t pan out, it could be another mid-tier QB1 season for Mahomes.

Overall case: Reid and Mahomes will find a way to get the long pass attack moving in the right direction even it takes a committee approach from the bevy of speedy wideouts on this roster. That alone will return Mahomes to his accustomed upper-tier QB1 level, but add in a slight increase in rushing production and a better year from Kelce, and Mahomes can be the highest scoring fantasy QB in 2024.

Draft strategy: Mahomes will end up on a fantasy roster sometime in Rounds 2-3 in just about every draft room this year.

3. Jalen Hurts, PHI

• Overall rank: 2
• Upside rank: 3
• Downside rank: 3

Upside case: One of the most amazing statistics of the 2023 season is that Hurts scored a touchdown on 13 out of his 16 rushes inside the 5-yard line. That’s an incredible pace and is why Hurts led the league in rushing touchdowns in that area of the field. It also placed Hurts first in quarterback rush points for the second time in three years (he was second in 2022) and, given the success of the “Tush Push,” a repeat performance is possible. New OC Kellen Moore is a very creative play caller, so Hurts should be able to improve upon his No. 24 rank in short pass PPG and No. 20 rating in pass PPG. He’s very durable, having missed only three games due to injury the past three seasons.

Downside case: Moore’s system required a complete play-calling overhaul, so it may take some time for this offense to get into gear. The retirement of center Jason Kelce compounds that issue. The addition of Saquon Barkley will likely shift this offense away from many of the zone read plays, and thus reduce Hurts’ rushing volume. If Barkley can convert some of the inside-the-10 rushes into touchdowns before they become goal line plays, Hurts could see his goal line scores decline. History also says last year’s touchdown number is an outlier, as Hurts’ 15 rushing touchdowns set an all-time QB record in that category (tied with Josh Allen). The O-line and receiving corps don’t have much depth. There is only one green-rated QB fireworks matchup in the first five weeks.

Overall case: The Eagles had a late-season collapse and yet that didn’t hurt Hurts from a fantasy scoring perspective, as from Weeks 2-17 he had only one game with fewer than 18.9 points. That shows Hurts can navigate the kinds of choppy waters that may show up this year and, as such, he is among the top three at this position.

Draft strategy: The high amount of quality quarterback depth in this year’s draft means Hurts could be on boards at the end of Round 3, but wise fantasy managers will consider selecting him as early as the end of Round 2.

4. Lamar Jackson, BAL

• Overall rank: 4
• Upside rank: 4
• Downside rank: 4

Upside case: Baltimore’s new passing attack helped Jackson improve his pass PPG total by two points from 2022 to 2023. That improvement placed him only three-hundredths of a point away from ranking 13th in this category. With the Ravens asking Jackson to do even more pre-play adjustments at the line of scrimmage this season, it’s possible he will move to Top 10 status in this metric in 2024. Jackson is still an elite rusher, as he was first in QB rush yards and third in QB rush points last year, so fantasy managers should get the best of both worlds from him. The addition of Derrick Henry will make it that much tougher for defenses to defend Jackson. Baltimore has 10 green-rated QB fireworks matchups, so high scoring contests could be the norm for this squad.

Downside case: The Ravens want to use Jackson’s zone read ability and Henry’s outside zone read skill, but these two approaches aren’t compatible for concurrent use. That doesn’t mean Baltimore will entirely move away from zone read plays for Jackson, but rather suggests that a reduction in zone read plays is likely. The Ravens had to replace three starting offensive linemen, which presents a challenge even for Baltimore’s great offensive line coach. The Ravens’ wide receiver corps has talent, but its performance level has been mediocre at best.

Overall case: It’s almost always a net fantasy point negative when a rush-centric quarterback trades carries for pass attempts. That’s likely to happen to Jackson this season and it is why he has moved to the bottom of the elite four at this position.

Draft strategy: Last year was only the second time Jackson has ranked in the top four in QB scoring, yet many fantasy managers are expecting that to be par for him this year. It’s why Jackson is a bit overvalued as a fourth-round pick, yet his value proposition says he is better suited to be drafted in Round 5.

5. Jordan Love, GB

• Overall rank: 5
• Upside rank: 6
• Downside rank: 4

Upside case: Love hit his stride just past the midpoint of the 2023 season, as from Weeks 11-18 he posted five games with 20-plus points. For perspective, that is tied for the ninth-highest number of 20-plus point games for a quarterback from Week 11 to the end of the season in NFL history. HC Matt LaFleur trusts Love in pressure situations, which is why Love ranked second in red zone pass attempts, and Love earned that trust by tying for second in red zone touchdown passes. Green Bay has the deepest well of pass catching talent in the league, which is why this is a pass-centric offense. Love adds ground game value, placing 13th in rush PPG. There are nine green-rated QB fireworks matchups in Green Bay’s first 15 games.

Downside case: The NFC divisional playoff game against San Francisco could be an issue, because even though the 49ers have more defensive talent than just about anyone, they also may have provided a game-plan blueprint to slow the Packers offense. Green Bay’s defense may be improved, but it’s still not built to win shootout contests, which may account for LaFleur building a three-headed backfield that can slow games down. The Packers’ O line has talent, but it also went through multiple personnel moves that could hinder things early on.

Overall case: It’s clear Love is now a starting-caliber QB in fantasy, and one with plenty of upside given the schedule, but LaFleur is wise enough not to try to turn this into an “Air LaFleur” system. That affords some limitations on Love’s QB1 upside, so place him in the middle of that tier.

Draft strategy: That late-season scoring burst will impact Love’s value, so he may end up requiring a fifth-round pick, but the better approach is waiting it out until Round 6 to select him.

6. Dak Prescott, DAL

• Overall rank: 6
• Upside rank: 9
• Downside rank: 6

Upside case: HC Mike McCarthy continued his track record of fielding top three fantasy quarterbacks under his play-calling direction, as Prescott’s No. 3 rank in QB points last year marked his second-best career showing. Prescott had his highest completion rate and second lowest interception and passing touchdowns rate and rated in the top five in PPG at all depth levels, thus showing McCarthy’s approach has a positive impact across the board. CeeDee Lamb could account for one-third of Prescott’s targets. Prescott is in a contract year. The Cowboys bring back three starters from an O-line that ranked fifth in pass pressure rate allowed last year. The schedule has seven green-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first 10 games.

Downside case: The drop-off from Lamb to the rest of the Cowboys wide receiver corps may be a steeper slope than any other team has. Prescott has missed notable time in two of the past four seasons due to a variety of physical ailments. The Dallas O-line did not return intact, as the Cowboys will have a rookie at left tackle and either rookie or a journeyman at center. Barring a huge comeback by Ezekiel Elliott, the Dallas running back corps will rate as one of the worst in the league.

Overall case: There are many plusses here, yet the overriding issue for Prescott is that the Cowboys have little personnel depth. This provides minimal margin for error over a 16-game fantasy season, and it is a strong enough element to drop Prescott to mid-tier QB1 status.

Draft strategy: Having Prescott as a starter all but assures that you will need a solid backup option. That’s an additional cost that makes it worth waiting before drafting Prescott, so put him on radar screens around Rounds 6-7.

7. Brock Purdy, SF

• Overall rank: 7
• Upside rank: 8
• Downside rank: 7

Upside case: Fantasy managers weren’t sure how much faith to place in Purdy following his blistering late-season pace in 2022, but he showed that was just the beginning of such numbers by finishing sixth in QB points in 2023. Purdy had the third-highest pass PPG total last year, had more vertical passing points than any other quarterback, and was sixth in stretch vertical PPG. The 49ers have a strong case for the best collection of skill position talent in the NFL and return all 11 starters from last year’s offense, so Purdy will have ample elite assistance in reaching these totals. It’s possible the 49ers will throw the ball more this year given Purdy’s progression. He rushed for nearly 1,200 yards and 19 scores in college, so improvement over a No. 18 rank in rush PPG is possible.

Downside case: Purdy led the league in TD percentage, YPA, YPC, QB rating, QBR, net YPA, and adjusted net YPA last year. That’s a reflection of a talented quarterback surrounded by plenty of great players, yet it could also be something of an outlier campaign. Purdy threw only 444 passes last year, which is an incredibly low rate for the 16 games he played in, so his pass attempts ceiling may be lower than other QB1 candidates. Having Christian McCaffrey in the backfield automatically provides plenty of competition for inside-the-10 plays, so Purdy won’t contend with the best in this area. There is a bit of a durability question given Purdy’s UCL injury in 2022 playoffs and shoulder stingers late last year, one of which crushed his fantasy value vs. Baltimore in Week 16.

Overall case: It’s clear Purdy is not a system manager and it’s also clear that fantasy managers can rely on him as one of the most consistent point producers at this position. Rate Purdy as a very solid mid-tier QB1.

Draft strategy: That mid-tier production can be acquired at a low-tier QB1 rate, as Purdy may still be on a lot of draft boards until Round 8 or 9, but the percentage play, if taking him, is to do so in Round 7 or 8.

8. Anthony Richardson, IND

• Overall rank: 8
• Upside rank: 5
• Downside rank: 8

Upside case: Richardson’s injury-truncated season kept him from qualifying for the PPG rankings, but his 8.9 rush PPG was the highest QB total in the league if the qualifying bar is removed. He had four rushes of 10-plus yards in roughly 3.5 games, a pace that prorates among the best at this position over a 17-game span. Richardson had a 81-yard rushing touchdown at the University of Florida, the longest by a QB in program history, so he has rare breakaway ability at this position. The Colts gave their quarterbacks 26.9 percent of goal line carries last year and Richardson scored twice from inside the 5-yard line in those 3.5 games, so he’ll be a primary rush threat in close. Adding Adonai Mitchell in the draft gives Richardson another deep-ball target, and Michael Pittman Jr. is a very reliable No. 1 wideout.

Downside case: The draft pundits said Richardson takes too many hits on rush plays and might not last a full season because of it, and it turned out they were right. Richardson was a starter at Florida for only one year, so he still doesn’t even have 1.5 full campaigns under his proverbial belt. That is part of why Richardson is a very inconsistent passer, and that was before the surgery to his throwing shoulder. HC Shane Steichen may reduce the number of hits on Richardson by relying more on Jonathan Taylor on goal line carries. One word to describe the Colts receiving corps is underachieving. The fireworks points total is the lowest at this position.

Overall case: Richardson can obviously follow the QB1 rushing path set by Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and company, but he’s less likely to match their passing talents at this point and has more injury concerns. Put those aspects together and he’s a somewhat risky mid-tier QB1 with blue-rated upside.

Draft strategy: Fantasy managers are viewing Richardson as a low draft cost way of getting Jackson/Hurts upside. This is driving his draft day value into the fourth round, yet the injury risk and passing issues suggest that waiting until at least Round 5 is the better way to go.

9. C.J. Stroud, HOU

• Overall rank: 9
• Upside rank: 13
• Downside rank: 11

Upside case: It’s tough to overstate how incredible it is for a rookie quarterback to be the best stretch vertical passer in the league, yet Stroud has a claim for that honor since he led the league in stretch vertical PPG last season. That he was also third in vertical PPG is why Stroud ended up fifth in pass PPG and eighth in overall PPG. Before thinking he can’t repeat that feat, remember there is upside now that Stefon Diggs is on board and if Tank Dell plays a full season after notching only 11 games in 2023. Stroud didn’t rush much at Ohio St., so his placing 15th in rush PPG showed improvement in a key fantasy scoring metric. There are six green-rated QB fireworks matchups from Weeks 8-17.

Downside case: Cam Newton keeps coming to mind, as Newton had a phenomenal rookie season (370.3 fantasy points) then lost nearly 50 points off that pace due to defenses adjusting to him. The same could happen to Stroud, especially with a pass coverage schedule that is among the toughest at this position. Diggs was 67th in vertical PPR PPG from Weeks 10-17, suggesting that he may have lost something off his proverbial fastball. Pass coverage isn’t the only schedule impediment, as the Texans face 10 teams with a red-rated pass rush and have just two green-rated QB fireworks matchups from Weeks 1-7.

Overall case: Newton did see a fantasy point drop-off from Year 1 to Year 2, but he only went from third to fourth in QB scoring. The TFS projection has Stroud making a similar lateral move in positional ranking, as he placed ninth in QB scoring last year and should stay around that level this season.

Draft strategy: The general consensus is that Stroud’s relative value will take a forward step rather than a lateral one this year, so he will tend to be drafted earlier than his TFS Round 6 assessment.

10. Kyler Murray, ARI

• Overall rank: 10
• Upside rank: 7
• Downside rank: 13

Upside case: Murray battled injury rust following his Week 10 return last year, yet ranked ninth in QB PPG, sixth in QB rush PPG, and third in short pass PPG. That shows how well he fit into OC Drew Petzing’s offense, and that’s before the Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. to their lineup. The Harrison addition also means Arizona has top 15-caliber talent in its overall receiving corps. Multiple reports say Murray has shown tremendous work ethic this offseason, so the video game habits may be a thing of the past. The Cardinals made multiple offensive line upgrades this offseason. Five of Arizona’s first seven games are against teams with green ratings in QB fireworks, so the Cardinals could get into plenty of high-scoring games early this year.

Downside case: It may take more than Harrison to get Murray’s deep-ball numbers into the respectable range, as last year Murray was the worst in the league in vertical PPG and 29th in stretch vertical PPG. That’s not an anomaly, as Murray was also dead last in those two categories in 2022. Injury rust may not be a concern, but Murray has played full seasons in only two of his five NFL campaigns, so there is a durability question mark. Take Harrison out of the receiving corps and the Cardinals have mediocre receiving talent.

Overall case: Murray has done well on a PPG basis over the years, and he now has Harrison to help turn the corner in the deep pass category. Combine that with the improved work ethic and it gives Murray low-tier QB1 potential.

Draft strategy: Murray is widely seen as a mid-tier QB1, so he won’t stay on the board past the sixth or seventh round in most draft rooms.

11. Joe Burrow, CIN

• Overall rank: 11
• Upside rank: 11
• Downside rank: 10

Upside case: Burrow was dominant during the time that he was healthy last year, as he posted four games with 19-plus points in a five-game span from Weeks 5-10. For perspective, only 20 quarterbacks had that many 19-plus point games last year and Burrow basically did it in one-third of a full campaign. He did that despite battling a calf injury that removed nearly all of his rushing production, which isn’t looking to be an issue this year since Burrow is on track to return in time for the regular season. Few quarterbacks have a wide receiver tandem as good as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Cincinnati once again invested heavily in its offensive line to help keep Burrow healthy.

Downside case: Keeping Burrow healthy is something that gets more difficult every year, as during his collegiate and pro careers he has dealt with hand, rib, knee, finger, calf, appendix, and wrist issues. The wrist issue that ended his season last year is arguably the most concerning, as it could motivate the Bengals to lean more heavily on the ground game and prevent Burrow from rushing the ball any more than absolutely necessary. Cincinnati has a new offensive coordinator who has never held that job before (although, to be fair, HC Zac Taylor may handle play calling duties). The Bengals have arguably the toughest pass coverage schedule in the 2024 season and have four red-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first six weeks.

Overall case: He’s a dominant fantasy quarterback when he plays, but the recurrent injuries now have to be baked into Burrow’s fantasy grades. That and the brutal schedule are why Burrow is listed as a low-end QB1.

Draft strategy: Where one drafts Burrow depends on how comfortable one is with his durability and schedule. The TFS projection leads to little comfort in this area and indicates he should be drafted in Rounds 6-7, but he won’t be available in those rounds in most rooms.

12. Jayden Daniels, WAS

• Overall rank: 12
• Upside rank: 10
• Downside rank: 14

Upside case: Daniels had numerous signature achievements in college, most notably winning the Heisman Trophy. He is the only FBS player to ever pass for 12,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards in a career. Daniels played just two seasons at LSU and is still one of only 18 players to rush for 2,000 yards for that program. He set the SEC record for total offense in a game and did so versus an SEC foe (Florida). In that contest, Daniels became the first FBS player to rush for 200 yards and pass for 350 yards in a game. OC Kliff Kingsbury’s system is a perfect fit for this dual skill set. Having Terry McLaurin as a No. 1 WR is a plus, and the Jahan Dotson/Luke McCaffrey combination is plenty talented. There are eight green-rated QB fireworks matchup on the schedule.

Downside case: Rookie quarterbacks can be fantasy scoring nightmares, especially when playing behind shaky offensive lines like the one Washington has. Kingsbury’s offense might not use Daniels on rushing plays as much as another system might, as the focus will be on passing. The Beast NFL draft guide said Daniels takes too many hits on rushing plays, which could be an issue as defenses look to test his toughness from Day 1. Dotson hasn’t played to his talent level and McCaffrey is a rookie, so there could be inconsistency from the wideouts. The overall matchup and fireworks points totals are below average.

Overall case: He could end up in top five in QB rush PPG this year. Add that scoring pace to nominal passing numbers and it can result in a QB1 overall point total, so Daniels ends up at the bottom of that tier.

Draft strategy: Daniels will move off boards once the proven quarterback prospects have cleared, which should be some time around Rounds 8-9.

13. Trevor Lawrence, JAC

• Overall rank: 13
• Upside rank: 14
• Downside rank: 9

Upside case: Lawrence is one of only five quarterbacks to land in the QB1 tier in each of the past two years. He’s done this in part by placing in the top 12 in rush and vertical PPG in both seasons. Key to the rush scoring is that Lawrence is fifth in quarterback rushing touchdowns over the past three years, something he’s done with a combination of scrambles and goal line plays. Jacksonville’s WR/TE corps may be a top 10 group talent-wise, so Lawrence doesn’t lack for quality pass catchers. He has proven toughness, as Lawrence has missed only one NFL game and played through multiple injuries last year, including a painful ankle sprain and a concussion. The 2024 season opens with five straight green-rated QB fireworks matchups.

Downside case: Lawrence is prone to turnovers, as he is tied for second in interceptions over the past three years and has the most giveaways in that span. The QB1 designation is misleading, as Lawrence barely made it to that level (he ranked 12th) last year and was 15th in overall PPG. Playing through pain may be part of what caused last year’s turnover spike, as Lawrence had 10 giveaways in the four games after hurting his ankle against Cincinnati. That may be an issue since the Jaguars offensive line is a work in progress and the schedule has four red-rated pass rush matchups in the first five weeks.

Overall case: Durability is a trait that often goes overlooked when grading quarterbacks. That’s certainly the case here, as Lawrence has many plusses going for him, yet the reality is the durability may be the primary factor in his being a borderline QB1.

Draft strategy: Lawrence is a great low draft cost option for those looking to save draft capital at the QB position, as he weighs in as a borderline QB1 yet will be available as late as Rounds 9-10 in many draft rooms.

14. Jared Goff, DET

• Overall rank: 14
• Upside rank: 16
• Downside rank: 12

Upside case: The Lions are a power football team, but don’t let that sell you short on this club’s aerial prowess, as Goff was fourth in pass PPG last year. What makes this even more compelling is that Goff was sixth in vertical PPG and ninth in short PPG, so he has multiple paths to fantasy points. Detroit has ample assets to run the ball to the end zone, yet they still rely on Goff in close, as he was tied for seventh in pass touchdowns inside the 10. OC Ben Johnson returns, as do four out of five O line starters (and Detroit added a Pro Bowler in Kevin Zeitler to fill the vacant right guard position) plus Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so all of these scoring trends can continue. Goff is one of the most durable quarterbacks, having missed only five games in the past seven years.

Downside case: Goff’s fantasy production has no backup plan if the pass game doesn’t work, as he was 28th in rush PPG and has never topped 100 rushing yards in any of his three seasons in Detroit. His 12 interceptions last year make Goff one of only seven quarterbacks to throw 10-plus picks in four-plus seasons since 2018. The Lions seemed to scale their downfield ambitions back in 2022 when Goff started making risky throws and could do so again if he takes too many chances.

Overall case: He might not be the prototype for a fantasy QB1, but Goff has been at that level in each of the past two seasons — ranked 10th in 2022, seventh in 2023. Add that to the organizational stability and it results in his falling just slightly short of QB1 status.

Draft strategy: The perception of Goff as a QB2 is quite prevalent, which is why he will still be available in Rounds 8-9.

15. Caleb Williams, CHI

• Overall rank: 15
• Upside rank: 14
• Downside rank: 15

Upside case: His 2022 season at USC was one of the greatest in college football history, as Williams set nearly every major single-season passing record for the Trojans. What may be just as important in fantasy is that Williams also set the USC single-season record for QB rushing yards and racked up 27 rushing touchdowns in his career (including 10-plus in each of his final two campaigns). New OC Shane Waldron built an offense in Seattle that helped Geno Smith get the most out of his passing and rushing skills and should do the same for Williams here. Chicago’s receiving corps is a Top 10 group talent-wise. The pass coverage schedule is as good as one could ask for, and there are three green-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first four weeks of the season.

Downside case: Counting Williams, the Bears changed five out of their 11 offensive starters from last year. Chicago also has a new OC, so there will be a learning curve adjustment for everyone in this offense. The passing risks Williams got away with in college will lead to interceptions in the NFL. Chicago has a subpar offensive line, so Williams could take a lot of pass rush punishment. It’s unclear how often Williams will be used on planned rushes, so the rush production projection is volatile. The fireworks points total is a hindrance.

Overall case: There is potential for a C.J. Stroud-like breakout year for Williams, but there is just as much potential for him to tally boom-or-bust scoring totals every week. That’s a lot of risk for a starting fantasy quarterback, especially with the quality depth at this position, so slot Williams as an upper-tier QB2.

Draft strategy: That tier of quarterbacks should start moving off draft boards in Rounds 9-10.

16. Deshaun Watson, CLE

• Overall rank: 16
• Upside rank: 12
• Downside rank: 16

Upside case: Watson is one of only a few quarterbacks with three seasons of top five fantasy production on their resume. His production has dipped in Cleveland, as Watson has averaged 18.3 PPG over the last seven games he started and finished in Cleveland. Few quarterbacks have a receiving trio with talent level of Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku and even fewer can claim that and an offensive line the caliber of the Browns. Watson posted a career low 3.0 rush PPG last season and is capable of moving back to the 5-plus PPG level he was at during those top five campaigns. Cleveland has 10 green-rated QB fireworks matchups, including eight in Weeks 6-17.

Downside case: Even when Watson has been on his game, the Browns just don’t operate the type of Watson-centric offense that Houston did. That isn’t on track to change, as HC Kevin Stefanski has seen plenty of success with his ground-and-pound approach. There is a good chance of injury rust following Watson’s shoulder surgery that made him miss most of last year. Jeudy has played well below his talent level and Njoku isn’t among the elite at his position. The Browns have a great run blocking O-line, but their pass blocking is nowhere near as good, as Cleveland has posted subpar pass pressure rate allowed numbers for two straight years.

Overall case: It’s now clear that the Cleveland version of Watson is not the same as the Houston one in terms of fantasy production. There may be a top 12-caliber ceiling if multiple factors go well but, in general, Watson should rate in the upper deck of the QB2 tier.

Draft strategy: Fantasy managers are wisely grading Watson as a strong backup candidate, which is why he should still be available after Round 10 and possibly as late as Round 12.

17. Justin Herbert, LAC

• Overall rank: 17
• Upside rank: 18
• Downside rank: 17

Upside case: Last year, Herbert started the season with four straight games with 20 points, a feat only equaled by Dak Prescott and Josh Allen in 2023. This shows the type of elite scoring consistency Herbert is capable of. New HC Jim Harbaugh is wise enough to use Herbert’s skills, so the Chargers will likely operate a power rush/vertical pass system that has generated upper-tier QB1 value on many occasions over the years on other teams. One instance of this is when Chargers OC Greg Roman coached Lamar Jackson in 2019 when Jackson led the league in touchdown passes.

Downside case: Harbaugh and Roman might not give Herbert much more than 500 passes to work with, and a quarterback with that amount of attempts needs either rush ability or a ton of red zone touchdown passes to be a QB1. Herbert doesn’t do much on the ground and the Chargers will likely lean on Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins up close. Herbert’s missed two or more games in two of his four NFL seasons. The Los Angeles receiving corps consists of unproven young wide receivers and tight ends who are mostly run-blocking specialists. The Chargers rush defense schedule is much more favorable than the pass defense schedule, which will motivate Harbaugh and Roman to run the ball even more.

Overall case: Herbert can produce many starting-caliber games with this amount of passes, but not enough to rate as more than a mid-tier QB2.

Draft strategy: There is plenty of quality QB depth this year, so Herbert is no more than a Round 10-11option.

18. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ

• Overall rank: 18
• Upside rank: 17
• Downside rank: 18

Upside case: The New York brass have done all they can to make the Aaron Rodgers experiment work in Year 2, including adding veteran upgrades at both tackle positions, drafting backup OL depth in first-round pick Olu Fashanu, signing Mike Williams to add more verticality to the passing game, and drafting Malachi Corley as a potential impact slot receiver. Add that to the talents of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and the Jets have what looks to be a really good offense. All signs are pointing towards Rodgers being back to full speed after recovering from last season’s Week 1 Achilles injury. There are six green-rated QB fireworks matchups in Weeks 6-17.

Downside case: This is Rodgers’ age-41 season. The only quarterbacks to have at least 500 pass attempts in an age-41 campaign are Tom Brady (who did it five times) and Warren Moon (only once, in 1997). That says history is working against Rodgers being a full-time starter all year, and that’s before noting that New York’s offensive line has many question marks, including age at both tackle positions, and that Rodgers may not have the mobility he used to. Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay saw him place 22nd in PPG, 15th in pass PPG, and 29th in rush PPG, so he may have lost something off his fastball even before joining the Jets. There are two red-rated and only one green-rated QB fireworks matchup in Weeks 1-5.

Overall case: Rodgers is a generational talent, so it’s possible he defeats Father Time for one more year, but the percentage play is to view him as a solid backup.

Draft strategy: He’s one of many similarly-valued backup quarterbacks who will be available in Round 10 or later.

19. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

• Overall rank: 19
• Upside rank: 19
• Downside rank: 19

Upside case: Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards last year largely due to downfield efforts, as he ranked third in stretch vertical PPG and fourth in vertical PPG. Elite wide receiver play is the primary reason for this, as Tyreek Hill might be the best deep threat wideout in NFL history and Jaylen Waddle is one of the better vertical wide receivers around. Great as the talent is, the Dolphins also have the most creative play caller in the league in Mike McDaniel, who knows how to get maximum production out of Hill and Waddle. McDaniel relies on Tagovailoa near the end zone, as Tagovailoa ranked fifth in touchdown passes inside the 10 in 2023. Tagovailoa has been working on his mobility, so an increase in rushing production is possible.

Downside case: Tagovailoa could see an increase in rushing production with zero points, as he was last in QB rush PPG with an abysmal -0.6 points. That’s part of why Tagovailoa ranked 19th in QB PPG and, if that area doesn’t improve, any scoring upgrade will need to occur in the passing game. To say he’s turnover prone doesn’t really do that term justice, as Tagovailoa had 14 picks and 13 fumbles last year. That isn’t an anomaly, as Tagovailoa is fourth in giveaways over the past two seasons. Last year was the first time Tagovailoa has played 17 games in a season, and he’s dealt with major injuries in just about all of his college/pro campaigns. Miami has the toughest pass coverage schedule and has only one green-rated QB fireworks matchup in Weeks 1-6.

Overall case: Many things went well for Tagovailoa last year and he was only able to manage a QB11 ranking and was fewer than 13 points away from being outside of the QB1 tier. It’s not a percentage play to expect clear skies for two straight years, so Tagovailoa falls to the middle of the QB2 tier.

Draft strategy: The myriad fantasy scoring risk factors aren’t being given the credence they deserve by fantasy managers, so Tagovailoa, who should be drafted in Round 10 or later, is going 1-2 rounds earlier than that.

20. Matthew Stafford, LAR

• Overall rank: 20
• Upside rank: 20
• Downside rank: 20

Upside case: Most quarterbacks who have multiple paths to fantasy production do so through rush and pass combinations, but Stafford did it all through the air last season by ranking in the top 10 in short, vertical, and stretch vertical PPG. Sean McVay lets him throw passes in close, as Stafford ranked fourth both in pass attempts and touchdown passes inside the 10. That he did this after injuring his thumb in Week 8 shows Stafford’s legendary toughness, but what makes it even more incredible is that he posted five games with 18-plus points after returning from that ailment. The Rams have superb pass catchers and Cooper Kupp should be back at full strength. Los Angeles has a favorable pass blocking schedule and five green-rated QB fireworks matchups in Weeks 10-15.

Downside case: McVay looks to be shifting this offense more in the direction of the ground game, as the Rams added Blake Corum in the draft and rebuilt their offensive line with run blocking in mind. The toughness has helped Stafford stay under center more frequently, but he’s still been hit with major injuries in three of the past five years. Los Angeles now has Jimmy Garoppolo to back Stafford up, so the Rams might not press the 36-year-old Stafford into playing through ailments as much as they would have in the past. There are only two green-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first nine weeks.

Overall case: McVay is making this directional change in part because he wants to help Stafford stay healthy for a full season. That will marginally lower Stafford’s pass attempt total to the point that he is now a mid-tier QB2.

Draft strategy: How much should fantasy managers want to invest into a spot starter whose best value is in the second half of the season? The going rate looks to be a pick in Rounds 10-11.

21. Kirk Cousins, ATL

• Overall rank: 21
• Upside rank: 21
• Downside rank: 21

Upside case: The Falcons wanted an offensive aerial upgrade, and they got it with Cousins. He led the league in pass points in 2023, plus ranked first in vertical PPG, fourth in stretch vertical PPG and sixth in short PPG. That follows Cousins ranking sixth in QB fantasy points from 2020-22. He threw 10 red zone touchdown passes last year in only eight games, which prorates to 21 scores over a 17-game season, a pace that would have ranked second. Last year was the first time since 2014 that Cousins did not post at least one rushing touchdown, so an improvement is possible there. HC Raheem Morris favorably compared new OC Zac Robinson to Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, so this could be an aggressive passing attack. There are three green-rated QB fireworks matchups in Weeks 1-4.

Downside case: When asked about the Falcons 2024 offense, time and time again Atlanta’s coaches have said that they will lean on Bijan Robinson as heavily as possible. That indicates Cousins will not get to throw as often as he did in Minnesota. As talented as Drake London is, he’s no Justin Jefferson, so that could lead to a production downgrade for Cousins. Robinson’s red zone and goal line abilities may also reduce Cousins’ scoring pace in that area of the field. Cousins is returning from a midseason Achilles tear, so there could be injury rust. Even with those early-season green-rated fireworks matchups, Cousins has one of the lowest season-long fireworks grades at this position.

Overall case: Atlanta will make good use of Cousins’ talents, but they know Robinson is the best player on the club and thus won’t operate a pass-centric offense. Since Cousins only has that path to fantasy relevance, he rates as a low-tier QB2 in a very crowded position in fantasy football.

Draft strategy: Consider drafting Cousins once the draft round hits the double-digit level.

22. Geno Smith, SEA

• Overall rank: 22
• Upside rank: 22
• Downside rank: 22

Upside case: Smith’s regression in 2023 may be a one-year decline, as new OC Ryan Grubb’s system may be exactly what Smith needs to rebound in 2024. Grubb’s offense turned Fresno State into one of the best aerial attacks in the Mountain West Conference, and he followed that up by directing Washington to the second-highest passing yards per game total in the nation last year. The Seahawks have upgraded their O-line and have what might be the best wideout trio in the NFL, so Grubb can get Smith back to his pocket passing ways. The early-season schedule augurs plenty of high-scoring games, as there are six green-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first 11 contests. Those games could also be pass-heavy, as Seattle has five red-rated rush defense matchups in those same 11 games.

Downside case: Smith didn’t just falter slightly last year, as he had across the board mediocre metrics. Having a new HC, new OC, and a revamped O-line is a formula for early inconsistency. Seattle brought in Sam Howell to be the backup quarterback and Howell led the league in pass attempts last year, so he is a good fit for the Grubb offense and could replace Smith in the event he struggles. The 2022 campaign was the career anomaly for Smith, so it may be that last year’s regression was a truer representation of what he is fantasy scoring-wise. Weeks 12-17 have no green-rated QB fireworks matchups and four green-rated rush defense matchups, so there may be a switch to the ground game later in the year.

Overall case: It’s conceivable that Smith will improve over his QB19 finish last season, yet the projection here is that last year was closer to Smith’s par than 2022. Combine that with the amount of quality quarterbacks on the board this year and it puts Smith on the border of the QB2 and QB3 tiers.

Draft strategy: He’s a possible Round 14-15pick.

23. Baker Mayfield, TB

• Overall rank: 23
• Upside rank: 23
• Downside rank: 23

Upside case: Mayfield was never more than a mid-range QB2 in fantasy, but that changed with the move to Tampa, as he was one of just nine quarterbacks to post eight-plus games with 18-plus points. Part of that was due to Mayfield ranking tied for second in both vertical and stretch vertical touchdown passes. New OC Liam Coen worked with Mayfield in Los Angeles, so there should be minimal adjustment time. Tampa Bay returns most of the offensive starters from last year and upgraded the O-line with first-round pick Graham Barton, so there is a path to repeat the 2023 performance. The schedule has six green-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first 10 games, and passing could be emphasized since there are also six red-rated rush defense matchups in that span.

Downside case: Coen has three years of OC experience in college and the pros and each of his offenses had a low pass attempt total. Coen may also be a step down from last year’s OC Dave Canales. Only two of HC Todd Bowles’ offenses ranked in the upper half of the league in pass attempts when he was the man in charge. One of those clubs ranked 15th in pass attempts and the other (which ranked first) had Tom Brady. Mayfield is no Brady, so this isn’t going to be a pass-happy squad. The late-season schedule leans run-centric, as there are four green-rated rush defense matchups in Weeks 12-17.

Overall case: It took what are likely outlier deep-ball scoring numbers in order for Mayfield to reach low-end QB1 status last year. It’s not a good idea to count on that recurring in what should be a run-heavy offense, so Mayfield is a bottom rung QB2.

Draft strategy: He’ll be a 14th to 15th round pick in some leagues but will also go undrafted in many others.

24. Russell Wilson, PIT

• Overall rank: 24
• Upside rank: 24
• Downside rank: 24

Upside case: Last year showed Wilson hasn’t lost much of his game from a fantasy scoring perspective, as he placed in the top 13 in PPG in the rush, short, stretch vertical and total categories. He was also superb on red zone throws, placing tied for fourth in touchdown passes in that area. Wilson is highly durable, having missed only seven games in his entire career. Throwing upwards of 150 passes to George Pickens will be a huge plus. New OC Arthur Smith knows how to get the most out of someone with Wilson’s skill set. The Steelers made more O-line investments that should keep Wilson well protected. The fireworks points total is the best in the league, and there are seven straight green-rated QB fireworks matchups to close out the fantasy season.

Downside case: The most obvious potential downside is that Pittsburgh also traded for Justin Fields, who will be competing for the starting spot before the season and could continue that competition throughout the 2024 campaign if Wilson struggles. Pickens oftentimes plays below his talent level and Steelers have little proven pass catching talent outside of Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth. Smith’s offenses finished 25th or lower in pass attempts in four of his five years as an NFL OC or HC, and Pittsburgh has six green-rated rush defense matchups in the first nine contests. All seven of Wilson’s missed games have occurred in the past three seasons, so his durability may be declining. The matchup points total is among the least favorable.

Overall case: The projection here is that Wilson will win and keep the starting job. That won’t be enough in this run-heavy offense to make him any more than a low-end QB2, but he might be worth stashing on rosters for that auspicious late-season stretch.

Draft strategy: It will almost be a name your round when drafting Wilson, as he may go undrafted in many rooms or will be a last-round pick in those drafts where he is selected.

25. Derek Carr, NO

• Overall rank: 25
• Upside rank: 25
• Downside rank: 25

Upside case: The Saints have a new OC in Klint Kubiak and a new offensive system to go along with it. Carr provides Kubiak with plenty of downfield passing ability, as Carr ranked eighth and 11th, respectively, in vertical and stretch vertical PPG last year following top six rankings in each of those categories in 2022. Part of that is due to having a trio of capable deep-ball wideouts, all of whom return this year. Carr was also adept in close, as he was tied for eighth in red zone touchdown passes and placed third in scoring throws inside the 10 last season. He is very durable, having only missed four games in his 10-year NFL career. There are three green-rated QB fireworks matchups in the first five weeks.

Downside case: New Orleans has a potential disaster on the offensive line, as subpar play, injury issues and a retirement have forced this group to be completely retooled. Those vertical pass catchers, for the most part, aren’t nearly as proficient on short passes, which is why Carr was 17th in PPG in that area in 2023. Carr has never been a strong rusher, but last year he set a career low in rushing yards, and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown in three seasons. The fireworks points total is very low and portends for a lot of low scoring contests.

Overall case: Carr has ranked between 13th and 19th in QB scoring for seven straight seasons, but the Saints’ personnel issues, tough schedule, and ever-increasing volume of quality fantasy quarterbacks, move Carr to the border of the QB2/QB3 tiers.

Draft strategy: Outside of 2QB leagues, there really isn’t any reason to draft Carr.

• View the entire downloadable Excel QB rankings chart

(Top photo of Josh Allen: Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)